Torrington, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS61 KALY 152336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
736 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Once any lingering evening showers or thunderstorms
wind down, it will remain mild and muggy overnight with some patchy
fog. A weak upper level disturbance and surface warm front will
return the threat for some showers and thunderstorms again on
Friday, with the potential for a few strong storms.  Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Saturday, with the
potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT...Radar imagery continues to show some
isolated to scattered convection, especially across the
Adirondacks, Helderbergs and Hill Towns, southern Vermont and
the northern Berkshires. There has been little shear in place
and most of these storms have been slow moving, with storms
movement depending on cell interaction and outflow. There has
been some lightning from time to time, but cloud to ground
strikes hasn`t been overly extreme today. Due to the limited
shear, these storms don`t have the potential to produce strong
winds, but there have been some locally heavy downpours, with a
few spots across the Helderbergs, southern VT and northern
Berkshires seeing over an inch of rainfall. A few small Flood
Advisories have been issues for areas seeing the heaviest
downpours. Outside of these areas, it has been partly to mostly
cloudy with mild temperatures and muggy conditions. With sunset
underway soon, convection will begin to wane with the loss of
daytime heating and nocturnal effects taking over. Most showers
and thunderstorms will be done by 9 to 11 PM or so.

Sounding data shows plenty of llvl moisture developing under
subsidence inversion, so anticipating areas of low clouds and
fog, especially deeper protected valleys. Expect similar
conditions overnight at KPOU as the previous night with areas of
low clouds and patchy fog/br likely. Also, areas that received
rainfall this aftn, have higher probability of fog/br tonight
with light winds. Lows generally in the upper 50s southern Dacks
to lower 60s Capital District/Hudson Valley.

For Friday SPC has placed locations mainly along and south of the
Mohawk Valley in marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms. The
pre-storm environment wl feature slightly better deep layer shear in
the 20-30 knot range with sfc based CAPE values of 1500 to 2000
J/kg. In addition, better synoptic scale ascent wl arrive via 700 to
500mb s/w energy in the southwest flow aloft. This lift and
instability/shear parameters supports increasing areal coverage of
convection by early aftn with some stronger storms possible. Primary
threat given thermodynamics would be small hail, localized gusty
winds, and brief heavy downpours, especially with pw values in the
1.0 to 1.50" range. Highs wl be very similar to today with values in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday night is quiet with less fog/mist
potential given increasing boundary layer flow of 4 to 8 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- SPC has increased the marginal to slight risk (level 2 of 5)
  of severe thunderstorms Saturday for parts of the area. Some
  storms may produce damaging winds and/or large hail, along
  with frequent lightning and localized heavy rainfall.

Discussion:
Another active day is anticipated with several rounds of showers
and storms likely. SPC has increased the risk to slightt (2 out
of 5) for severe weather. Synoptic pattern shows approaching
mid/upper lvl trof with several embedded 5h vorts rotating acrs
our cwa. These strong dynamics wl interact with favorable deep
layer shear of 35 to 45 knots and CAPE values of 1200 to 2000
J/kg to produce localized strong to possibly severe storms.
Still some uncertainty on amount of clearing/destabilization
behind morning convection, along with timing of aftn/evening
energy. The pre- storm environmental conditions suggest strong
shear and weak- moderate instability with good dynamics, helping
increase the probability of some organized convection. In
addition, localized heavy rainfall wl be possible as WPC keeps
central/northern cwa in marginal risk of exceeding flash flood
guidance. Highs on Saturday in the 70s to near 80F. Lows drop
back into the 50s on Saturday night with lowering sfc dwpts on
west/northwest winds behind boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Closed mid/upper lvl circulation moves directly overhead on Sunday
with diurnal driven showers likely during the late morning into the
aftn hours. The greatest concentration of precip/qpf wl be acrs the
higher trrn of the southern Dacks/southern Greens and eastern
Catskills. Highs wl be much cooler on Sunday with values in the
upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. Cyclonic northwest flow and associated
cold air advection continues on Monday into Tues with progged 850mb
temps approaching 0C. A few lingering showers are possible acrs the
favorable upslope areas of the Dacks/southern Greens on Monday with
cool highs only in the 60s. Tuesday is quiet with weak high pres
nosing into the area, followed by more unsettled wx for mid to late
week associated with our next full latitude trof. Still some
uncertainty with development and timing of system, but probability
of another period of unsettled wx is increasing for mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered evening showers should remain mostly west and north of
the TAF sites. Low clouds should redevelop from south to north
overnight, with widespread MVFR Cigs developing 03Z-06Z/Fri and
continuing until 12Z-15Z/Fri. Some areas of IFR/LIFR Cigs will
be possible during this time as well, especially between
08Z-11Z/Fri at KPSF/KPOU. Some MVFR/IFR Vsbys may occur
overnight at KGFL as well. After morning low clouds lift, mainly
VFR conditions are expected, however a broken band of
showers/thunderstorms may affect the TAF sites between
18Z-22Z/Fri with brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds.

South to southeast winds will decrease to less than 5 KT
overnight, and increase to 5-10 KT by late Friday morning. Winds
will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near any
thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...WFO BTV
LONG TERM...WFO BTV
AVIATION...KL